Key Points:
- XRP slumps 3.75% as SEC uncertainty lingers—appeal withdrawal could trigger a rally beyond its all-time high of $3.55.
- SEC vs. Ripple: Will the agency withdraw its appeal? Speculation grows as crypto cases stall, impacting XRP’s outlook.
- Coinbase case pause sparks hopes for SEC’s Ripple appeal withdrawal—what this means for crypto enforcement trends.
SEC vs. Ripple Case: Is an Appeal Withdrawal Imminent?
On February 18, speculation grew over whether the SEC would withdraw its appeal challenging the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling in the Ripple case. Hopes for an end to the more than four-year case intensified as investors considered key developments in other SEC enforcement cases.
The SEC v Coinbase case took center stage on February 18, influencing sentiment toward the agency’s broader non-fraud enforcement actions.
John Reed Stark, former SEC Office of Internet Enforcement Chief, commented on the SEC pausing the Coinbase case, stating:
“Breaking News: SEC Coinbase Case “Paused” (Just Like the SEC’s Binance Case). Expect the SEC to Similarly “Pause” the Ripple Appeal Soon. The Writing is Now on the Wall: SEC Crypto-Enforcement Has Officially Expired.”
Stark further analyzed the unprecedented three-page joint motion, which cited the SEC’s ongoing review of crypto-related issues as justification for a stay:
“The extension will give the SEC time for “appropriate review” as it prepares its answer to the Coinbase petition. (Translation: Stick a fork in the SEC’s case against Coinbase, it’s done.)”
The joint motion in the Coinbase case and a recent Binance case filing both cited similar arguments for a stay. The parties argued that SEC’s newly established Crypto Task Force and its development of a crypto regulatory framework could potentially facilitate a resolution of the case.
John Reed Stark also noted the absence of lead crypto litigator Jorge Tenreiro, saying:
“The crypto-cases are now being led by a legal team from SEC’s headquarters in Washington, D.C., where they are undoubtedly now quarterbacked by the acting SEC Chair.”
Tenreiro was also a key figure in the Ripple case, raising further speculation about the SEC’s strategy.
XRP Price Trends: Appeal Withdrawal Could Be a Game-Changer
On Tuesday, February 18, XRP declined by 3.75%, following Monday’s 2.52% loss, closing at $2.5611. XRP faced heavier losses than the broader crypto market, which dropped by 1.14% to a total market cap of $3.1 trillion.
Uncertainty surrounding the SEC’s appeal strategy remained an XRP headwind. However, unlike the Binance and Coinbase cases, the SEC has until April to decide whether to withdraw or pursue its appeal. Ripple must file its reply brief for the appeal by April 16, potentially freeing up SEC resources for other cases.
The SEC filed its appeal-related opening brief on January 15, just days before Gary Gensler stepped down as SEC Chair. His departure, alongside shifting regulatory priorities, could influence the agency’s decision.
Looking ahead, Ripple case-related updates and potential progress toward a US XRP-spot ETF market will be drivers. Key Price Scenarios:
- Bullish Case: An SEC appeal withdrawal could push XRP past its all-time high of $3.5505.
- ETF Catalyst: A potential XRP-spot ETF approval could drive XRP toward $5 due to institutional inflows.
- Bearish Case: An ongoing SEC appeal and ETF rejection could push XRP below $1.50.
XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 190225
Bitcoin Moves Sideways as FOMC Meeting Minutes Loom
Bitcoin (BTC) continued its sideways move as investors awaited fresh catalysts. Beyond the Ripple case, BTC faced pressure from US economic data on February 18, with investors bracing for Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes.
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped from -12.6 in January to +5.7 in February. Significantly, the report revealed a pickup in inflationary pressures, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts. Higher borrowing costs may impact BTC demand.
In response to the data, BTC briefly climbed to a high of $96,782 before sliding to a low of $93,431.
BTCUSD – 30 Minute Chart – 190225
US BTC-Spot ETF Market Signals Weaker Demand
Market sentiment toward Fed policy also influenced the US BTC-spot ETF market. According to Farside Investors:
- Bitwise BTC ETF (BITB) saw net outflows of $112.7 million on February 18.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $16.4 million.
Excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market reported $129.1 million in net outflows. Tuesday’s flows followed last week’s $580.2 million of net outflows, leaving BTC hovering around the $95k level.
US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends remain crucial to the supply-demand balance as investors await progress toward a potential US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).
The introduction of a national SBR could significantly impact Bitcoin’s supply-demand balance, driving speculation about institutional adoption. John E. Deaton recently commented:
“If the US Government (USG) passes Senator Lummis’ Bill and begins buying BTC, it will no doubt cause other nations to follow suit, just like with gold. It could literally create Nation State FOMO, and if that occurs, $1M per BTC happens a lot faster than people think.”
Bitcoin Price Outlook
On February 18, BTC slipped by 0.14% after Monday’s 0.48% loss to close at $95,635. A three-day losing streak left BTC short of the $100k level for the eleventh straight session amid uncertainty about a US SBR.
Potential BTC catalysts include:
- FOMC Meeting Minutes: Insights into inflation, the labor market, and monetary policy.
- US Tariff policies: Trade tensions and their economic impact.
- Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) Development: Updates on the US government’s stance.
Possible BTC Price Scenarios:
- Bearish: A hawkish Fed, escalating tariff tensions, and resistance to a US SBR could drag BTC toward $90,000.
- Bullish: A dovish Fed, easing trade tensions, and progress on an SBR could push BTC toward its all-time high of $109,312.
BTCUSD – Daily Chart – 190225
Market Outlook: Regulatory Developments Remain Key
Investors should watch these critical factors influencing institutional engagement and price trends:
- The SEC’s appeal in the Ripple case.
- US tariff policies and their inflationary impact.
- Fed forward guidance.
- Updates on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).
- BTC-spot ETF market flows and institutional adoption.
